Research question
How can monthly used energy be estimated when recharge transactions are available but independent meter readings are absent?
Approach
Combine personal rolling recharge patterns, tariff seasonality and an activity-weighted blend with a balance carry-forward simulation. Estimated usage is capped by available prepaid credit.
Contribution
An auditable reconstruction method for prepaid consumer analysis that distinguishes purchased energy from estimated energy use.
Evidence & limitations
Reconstructed kWh is an estimate, not metered ground truth. Opening-balance assumptions and small peer groups affect the result. No unreleased numerical results are presented here.
Next step
Validate against independent meter or balance observations and document sensitivity to initial balances.
Methodology stages
01 / Recharge history
02 / Seasonal target
03 / Balance simulation
04 / Estimated used kWh