Research question
Can calibrated monthly forecasts support consumer-to-feeder prioritization and defensible energy-shaping scenarios?
Approach
Audit the consumer-month panel, compare chronological baselines, then evaluate quantile boosting with pinball loss and coverage. Keep observed postpaid targets separate from estimated prepaid targets.
Contribution
A practical research protocol linking uncertainty-aware forecasts to explicitly assumed conservation and energy-shaping scenarios.
Evidence & limitations
One annual cycle limits seasonal generalization. Monthly bills do not establish hourly peaks or actual flexible capacity. Consumer quantiles cannot simply be summed as feeder quantiles.
Next step
Reconcile sources and panel keys, finish the data audit and run common-origin forecast baselines.
Methodology stages
01 / Audited monthly panel
02 / Temporal backtesting
03 / Calibrated quantiles
04 / DSM scenarios